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Arthur D. Spaulding and Frank G. Stewart

Abstract: This report presents an analysis and explanation of the system performance calculations performed by the reliability and service probability subroutines of the Ionospheric Communication Analysis and Prediction Program "IONCAP" and an IONCAP derivative termed "VOACAP". A review of the three components needed to properly statistically describe the performance of a communications system or link is presented. These components are needed to account for the short-term and long-term statistical variations of the desired signal and the interference and also the inherent prediction errors. A detailed numerical example is given for illustration and explanation. The functioning of the subroutines that perform the system performance calculations is documented in detail followed by suggestions for modification and improvement.

Keywords: IONCAP; overall operating noise threshold; VOACAP; reliability; noise; system performance

Disclaimer: Certain commercial equipment, components, and software may be identified in this report to specify adequately the technical aspects of the reported results. In no case does such identification imply recommendation or endorsement by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, nor does it imply that the equipment or software identified is necessarily the best available for the particular application or uses.

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