Edwin L. Crow; Martin J. Miles

Abstract: Approximate confidence limits for error rates (probabilities of an error) of digital communication systems are derived under the assumptions that the sample is large , the error rate is constant and the dependence between transmission s is governed by a stationary first-order Markov chain mode l . Five different approximations are given: normal distribution, Edgeworth two-term and f our-term , Pear son system, and modified Poisson-Anderson-Bur stein. Results by Gabriel and by Klotz are used. The limits are compared with Ladd's small-sample limits and illustrated on telephone data. Method s for testing the validity of the model are described. A computer program for applying the limits is presented, and an extensive Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the limits is summarized. Methods for designing the experiment so as to achieve a specified precision are given.

Keywords: confidence limits; design of experiments; digital communication systems; Markov chain; Bernoulli trials; chi-squared test; confidence region; Edgeworth series; Freeman-Tukey deviates; likelihood ratio test; Monte Carlo simulation; nonstationarity; Pearson system

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